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Economics and Econometrics

Economic theory and quantitative analysis of economic phenomena, including microeconomic and macroeconomic theory, econometric modeling, causal inference, and empirical testing of economic hypotheses

26 papers

Papers

Intergenerational mobility in the very long run: Florence 1427–2011

This paper investigates intergenerational socioeconomic mobility in Florence over six centuries using surname-based pseudo-links from tax records (1427 and 2011). It reveals that mobility was surprisingly low in pre-industrial Florence, with significant persistence in both earnings and wealth across generations, particularly in elite occupations. The findings suggest that social status can be highly persistent over very long periods, with a slower convergence of initial statuses than often estimated.

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Economics and Econometrics Oct 01, 09:57 AM

DETERring more than Deforestation: Environmental Enforcement Reduces Violence in the Amazon

This study uses cloud cover as an instrument to examine the impact of environmental law enforcement on violence rates in the Brazilian Amazon, finding that increased enforcement correlates with a decrease in homicides. While the authors attempt to control for various factors, determining causality is always challenging in observational studies. This type of study can only show correlation, not causation.

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Economics and Econometrics Sep 10, 07:20 PM

The Transformation of Canada's Temporary Foreign Worker Program

This paper analyzes Canada's Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program, finding a significant shift towards "two-step immigration," where temporary workers transition to permanent residency. The program has seen a rise in skilled workers and longer permit durations, particularly within the International Mobility Program (IMP), which lacks transparency in job locations and occupations.

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Economics and Econometrics Sep 10, 05:31 PM

Ideas Have Consequences: The Impact of Law and Economics on American Justice

This study examines the impact of the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges, finding that attendance increased the use of economics language in judicial opinions and shifted decisions in a more conservative direction, particularly in economics-related cases and against regulatory agencies. The program may have influenced judicial thinking by introducing economic reasoning, but its conservative slant and funding from pro-business groups raise concerns about potential ideological persuasion or lobbying.

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Economics and Econometrics Sep 10, 12:44 PM

Rising Inequality, Declining Mobility: The Evolution of Intergenerational Mobility in Germany

This study finds that intergenerational income mobility has decreased in Germany for those born between 1968 and 1987. The rank-rank slope, a measure of economic mobility, increased substantially between earlier and later birth cohorts, now similar to estimates from the United States. Educational attainment is increasingly tied to parental income, suggesting an important mechanism behind this declining mobility.

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Economics and Econometrics Sep 08, 06:19 AM

Applied Causal Inference Powered by ML and AI

This book introduces the application of machine learning methods for causal inference, specifically focusing on how predictive tools like Lasso, random forests, and deep neural networks can be used for causal analysis. The authors explain key concepts in both predictive and causal inference and provide real-data examples with accompanying code notebooks. The book assumes some background in econometrics and focuses primarily on econometric applications.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 23, 06:04 AM

Net fiscal contributions of immigrant groups in Denmark and Finland are highly predictable from country of origin IQ and Muslim %

This study found a correlation between immigrant groups' net fiscal contributions in Denmark and Finland and their home countries' average IQ and Muslim percentage. Higher national IQ correlated with higher contributions, while a higher Muslim percentage correlated with lower contributions. However, the small sample size, correlational nature of the data, and some inconsistencies in data collection between the two countries limit the generalizability of the findings and don't demonstrate causation.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 21, 05:47 PM

Net fiscal contributions of immigrant groups in Denmark and Finland are highly predictable from country of origin IQ and Muslim %

This study found correlations between immigrant groups' financial contributions in Denmark and Finland, their home countries' average IQ scores, and the percentage of Muslims in those countries. However, the small sample size (9 overlapping countries) and reliance on correlation without establishing causality limit the reliability of the findings.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 21, 05:47 PM

An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier

This study finds that government investment in Germany has a significant positive effect on the economy, leading to a crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of around 2. Specifically, investments in infrastructure seem most effective. The study constructs a narrative instrument to identify exogenous changes in investment policy, addressing concerns about reverse causality.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 19, 01:01 PM

Colorism in the Rental Housing Market: Field Experimental Evidence of Discrimination by Skin Color

This field experiment used data from a HUD study to investigate colorism in the rental housing market. It found that darker-skinned Black renters faced more discrimination, while lighter-skinned Hispanic renters also experienced discrimination, contrary to some previous findings. The study highlights how the race of both the renter and the housing agent can influence discriminatory practices.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 18, 08:06 PM

Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity

This research proposes "Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity" (TFPE), which accounts for pollution's long-term damage. The analysis finds that the U.S. experienced steadier TFPE growth since 2005 compared to traditional measures, especially when using high estimates of carbon's social cost, due to declining emissions. The findings also highlight that while many advanced economies experienced similar TFPE trends, some developing nations experienced stark decreases.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 17, 01:18 PM

Outpacing climate change: adaptation to heatwaves in Europe

This study found that Europe has been adapting to heatwaves, with increasing tolerance to higher temperatures counteracting the impact of rising temperatures. Economic growth, possibly through increased air conditioning use, is identified as a major driver, enabling tolerance of an additional 1°C for every 19.7k euro increase in per-capita GDP. The model relies on a relatively low 22°C threshold for defining heatwave impact, which might overestimate the overall adaptation progress.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 14, 10:34 AM

THE EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF A GUARANTEED INCOME: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM TWO U.S. STATES

This study examines the effects of a three-year unconditional cash transfer of $1,000 per month on low-income individuals in two US states. The transfers led to a moderate decrease in work hours and earnings, with recipients primarily using the extra time for leisure. While there were no significant improvements in job quality or human capital investments overall, some suggestive evidence indicates younger participants may pursue more formal education and that individuals exhibit more interest in entrepreneurship as a result of the transfers.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 09, 12:43 PM

The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children

A randomized controlled trial providing $1,000 monthly to low-income parents for three years found improved parenting behaviors and increased spending on children, but no significant short-term improvements in children's educational or social-emotional outcomes. In fact, parents in the treatment group reported more behavioral difficulties and stress among their children, although this may be due to increased supervision and awareness by parents. Longer-term follow-up is needed to assess whether the observed improvements in parenting and investment generate benefits for children later in childhood or in adulthood.

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Economics and Econometrics Aug 06, 12:02 PM

A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)

This paper introduces the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), a database tracking 19 pandemic policies across 180+ countries. The data reveal a global convergence in policy adoption during the initial phase of the pandemic, followed by divergence as countries eased and reimposed restrictions. The study demonstrates the database's potential by analyzing its correlation with mobility data.

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Economics and Econometrics Jul 14, 05:18 PM

Institutions, institutional quality, and international competitiveness: Review and examination of future research directions

This review examines the link between institutions, institutional quality, and international competitiveness. It finds that existing theories often focus on firm or country levels but neglect industry and individual levels, primarily using quantitative methods. The review proposes an agenda for future research in these understudied areas using more diverse methodologies and theoretical approaches.

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Economics and Econometrics Jul 14, 05:14 PM

Economics of Climate Change: Global Trends, Country Specifics and Digital Perspectives of Climate Action

The paper discusses the challenges and opportunities related to the economics of climate change, emphasizing the need for methodological pluralism, the impact of COVID-19 on green recovery, the complexity of climate actions, country heterogeneity, the limitations of existing tools, and the potential of digital technologies. It highlights the interconnectedness of climate change with other SDGs, particularly those related to energy, innovation, poverty, health, and agriculture, calling for further research into these areas.

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Economics and Econometrics Jul 14, 05:12 PM

Food Security and the Dynamics of Wheat and Maize Value Chains in Africa and Asia

The paper reviews the role of wheat and maize value chains in food security in Africa and Asia, highlighting the challenges of meeting growing demand while facing environmental constraints and climate change. It emphasizes the need for continued investment in research and development, particularly for increasing productivity and sustainability of these crops, as well as for promoting sustainable intensification practices and diversifying diets.

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Economics and Econometrics Jul 14, 05:11 PM

Neuromarketing: Its current status and research perspectives

This review examines neuromarketing research from 2001-2019 using Web of Science and Scopus, revealing a fragmented field with evolving research trends and a growing interest in consumer neuroscience. It identifies three key research perspectives related to brain-brand connections, research tools and techniques, and consumer behavior, highlighting the need for further research to solidify the field.

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Economics and Econometrics Jul 14, 06:47 AM

Polycrisis: Prompts for an emerging worldview

The article discusses the concept of "polycrisis," referring to the interconnectedness of contemporary global challenges. It argues that anthropology can contribute to understanding polycrises by examining the complex interplay of social, cultural, economic, and environmental factors at various scales. It emphasizes the importance of moving beyond simplistic cause-and-effect explanations and embracing the inherent complexity of these intertwined crises.

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Economics and Econometrics Jul 14, 06:47 AM