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An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier

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Paper Summary

Paperzilla title
Government Investment: A Stimulus That Works? (At Least in Germany)

This study finds that government investment in Germany has a significant positive effect on the economy, leading to a crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of around 2. Specifically, investments in infrastructure seem most effective. The study constructs a narrative instrument to identify exogenous changes in investment policy, addressing concerns about reverse causality.

Explain Like I'm Five

Government spending on things like roads and schools can actually boost the economy by encouraging businesses to invest more and create jobs.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Limitations

Limited Sample Period
The sample period ends in 2018, so recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects are not considered in this study.
Limited Geographic Scope
Focusing only on Germany makes it difficult to generalize about government investment effects in other countries, which may have different economic situations.
Comparing Estimates Using Different Methodologies
The study compares multipliers from several previous studies, but they use different methodologies and samples, making comparisons not entirely valid.

Rating Explanation

This paper presents a strong case for the positive effects of government investment in Germany using novel data and methods. The identification strategy with the narrative instrument is clever. While there are some limitations regarding generalizability, the detailed analysis for Germany makes the study valuable. The DSGE analysis adds depth to the findings.

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File Information

Original Title: An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier
Uploaded: August 19, 2025 at 01:01 PM
Privacy: Public