Effects of international sanctions on age-specific mortality: a cross-national panel data analysis

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Sanctions: Deadlier Than War? (But Correlation Isn't Causation)

This study suggests a link between economic sanctions, especially unilateral ones from the US, and increased mortality in affected countries, with a death toll comparable to armed conflicts. However, the study relies on observational data, making it difficult to definitively establish causality and rule out other factors.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

Two authors (SR and FR) received funding from CEPR during the initial research phase, but the manuscript was completed after their affiliation ended. FR also has outside affiliations as a consultant and expert witness, and as director of a non-profit.

Identified Weaknesses

Causality vs. Correlation

The study uses observational data, making it challenging to definitively prove sanctions *cause* increased mortality. Other factors related to both sanctions and health outcomes could be at play.

Indirect Effects

The mechanisms through which sanctions affect mortality are complex and hard to isolate. The study acknowledges difficulty in separating direct impacts from indirect effects like reduced government spending or healthcare access.

Oversimplification of Sanctions

Sanctions vary greatly in their design, targets, and implementation. Grouping them together may obscure important differences in how specific types of sanctions impact health.

Data limitations

Mortality data, especially in less developed countries, can be incomplete or unreliable. This could affect the accuracy of the study's estimates.

Rating Explanation

While the study uses sophisticated statistical methods to address potential confounders, its reliance on observational data ultimately limits the strength of causal claims. The significant findings and policy implications warrant attention, but further research with stronger causal designs is needed. The disclosed COIs are noted but don't appear to critically undermine the research.

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