Potential pediatric tuberculosis incidence and deaths resulting from interruption in programmes supported by international health aid, 2025-2034: a mathematical modelling study.
This mathematical modeling study, presented as a hypothetical analysis from mid-2025, projects that sharp cuts in international health aid from the United States and other donors to TB and HIV programs could lead to millions of additional pediatric tuberculosis cases and deaths between 2025 and 2034. The most severe scenario predicts an additional 8.9 million pediatric TB cases and 1.5 million deaths, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia, underscoring the critical importance of sustained funding.