Potential pediatric tuberculosis incidence and deaths resulting from interruption in programmes supported by international health aid, 2025-2034: a mathematical modelling study.

This mathematical modeling study, presented as a hypothetical analysis from mid-2025, projects that sharp cuts in international health aid from the United States and other donors to TB and HIV programs could lead to millions of additional pediatric tuberculosis cases and deaths between 2025 and 2034. The most severe scenario predicts an additional 8.9 million pediatric TB cases and 1.5 million deaths, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia, underscoring the critical importance of sustained funding.

The authors are affiliated with academic institutions heavily involved in global health research and initiatives (e.g., Harvard, Boston University, Yale). While no direct financial conflicts are declared, the study models the impact of hypothetical future cuts to international health aid programs (USAID, PEPFAR, Global Fund) that are crucial funding sources for the global health field. The paper's findings inherently advocate for the continuation of such funding, which aligns with the institutional and professional interests of global health researchers.

The study employs a robust mathematical modeling approach, calibrated to extensive data, to project the significant public health consequences of hypothetical cuts in international health aid for pediatric TB. It effectively highlights the potential for a reversal of decades of progress. The authors are transparent about the modeling assumptions and limitations, including the hypothetical nature of the funding scenarios and the assumed relationship between funding and service coverage. It is a well-executed modeling study with important policy implications.