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Oceanography

The multidisciplinary study of oceans, including physical oceanography, marine chemistry, biological oceanography, ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, and ocean-atmosphere interactions

9 papers

Papers

Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models

This study used causal inference to investigate how well CMIP6 climate models represent the mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability and potential tipping points in the North Atlantic. While basic links between surface conditions and deep convection are generally captured, key feedback loops involving subsurface temperature, ocean density, and gyre strength often show inconsistent or even contradictory signs across models, or are completely absent. Crucially, models that do capture more of the proposed mechanisms are also the ones that predict abrupt shifts in the subpolar gyre.

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Oceanography Oct 23, 11:06 AM

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

This study uses statistical analysis of sea surface temperature data to predict a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system, by mid-century. This prediction is based on the identification of early-warning signals, such as increasing variance and autocorrelation in temperature data, which suggest the system is approaching a tipping point. However, the prediction relies on a simplified model and the assumption of a linear change in the underlying driver of AMOC behavior, which might not hold true in reality.

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Oceanography Aug 29, 05:48 PM

Effects of bound-wave asymmetry on North Sea rogue waves

This study analyzes 18 years of wave data from the North Sea and finds that rogue waves are primarily caused by second-order bound nonlinearities (waves adding up on top of each other), making them steeper, rather than by modulational instability (an effect where waves feed energy into each other). The short 30-minute analysis windows introduce some uncertainty in kurtosis estimates, but the overall findings are robust and supported by composite wave statistics across a range of sea states.

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Oceanography Aug 10, 01:38 PM

Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming

This study projects a global increase in plankton species richness by the end of the century, driven by ocean warming and a poleward shift of species distributions. However, the responses differ between phytoplankton and zooplankton, with zooplankton richness declining in the tropics and increasing strongly in temperate and subpolar latitudes, leading to significant species turnover and potential disruption of ecosystem services.

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Oceanography Jul 14, 06:52 AM

Argo Data 1999–2019: Two Million Temperature-Salinity Profiles and Subsurface Velocity Observations From a Global Array of Profiling Floats

The Argo program has collected over two million temperature and salinity profiles from the upper 2 km of the ocean using an array of profiling floats. While challenges remain regarding sensor drift, quality control, and expanding the array, Argo has produced a valuable, high-quality dataset crucial for ocean and climate research and forecasting.

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Oceanography Jul 14, 06:52 AM

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

CMIP6 models project a worsening of ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient decline in the 21st century under various emission scenarios, with magnitudes exceeding those projected by CMIP5. The impact on primary production is variable, with declines in some regions and increases in others, accompanied by high inter-model uncertainty.

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Oceanography Jul 14, 06:52 AM