Effects of bound-wave asymmetry on North Sea rogue waves

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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North Sea Rogue Waves: Just a Big Splash, Not an Instability Mystery

This study analyzes 18 years of wave data from the North Sea and finds that rogue waves are primarily caused by second-order bound nonlinearities (waves adding up on top of each other), making them steeper, rather than by modulational instability (an effect where waves feed energy into each other). The short 30-minute analysis windows introduce some uncertainty in kurtosis estimates, but the overall findings are robust and supported by composite wave statistics across a range of sea states.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

M.P. Malila acknowledges ConocoPhillips Norway and Equinor ASA for access to wave data and partial funding for data processing. While this could represent a potential conflict of interest, it does not appear to have significantly influenced the results, which are consistent with other independent studies.

Identified Weaknesses

Short Sea State Duration

The short time intervals (30 minutes) used for analysis can lead to unreliable estimates of higher-order statistics, particularly for kurtosis, which is sensitive to extreme values (outliers). This can confound the results by overestimating the contribution of kurtosis.

Limited Spatial Coverage

The study primarily focuses on data from a single location (Ekofisk platform). While the study analyzes a relatively long time period (18 years), its findings might not be fully generalizable to other areas of the North Sea or other ocean basins with different characteristics.

Rating Explanation

This is a robust study with a large dataset and sophisticated analysis methods. It contributes meaningfully to our understanding of rogue wave formation by emphasizing the role of second-order bound waves. While there are limitations relating to the temporal resolution of the dataset and geographic limitations to the North Sea, the analysis is thorough, addresses potential sources of bias, and presents a well-supported conclusion. The potential conflict of interest regarding data access and partial funding is acknowledged and does not appear to invalidate the findings.

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