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Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography
Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections
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Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
CMIP6 Oceans: Hotter, More Acidic, Less Oxygen, But Not All Bad News for Plankton?
CMIP6 models project a worsening of ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient decline in the 21st century under various emission scenarios, with magnitudes exceeding those projected by CMIP5. The impact on primary production is variable, with declines in some regions and increases in others, accompanied by high inter-model uncertainty.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Weaknesses
Varied spatial resolutions of climate models
The spatial resolutions of different climate models vary, potentially influencing the accuracy of regional projections.
Fixed thresholds for compound stressors
Using fixed thresholds for compound stressors does not account for regional variations in natural conditions and ecosystem resilience, limiting the accuracy of compound stressor assessments.
Limitations in benthic biogeochemical modeling
Earth system models are not explicitly designed for benthic biogeochemical modeling, and spin-up simulations are often too short to fully equilibrate deep-ocean conditions, leading to uncertainties in benthic projections.
Simplification of ecological processes in models
The simplification of complex ecological processes in models, such as the microbial loop and grazing pressure, contributes to high inter-model uncertainty in net primary production projections.
Limited assessment of internal variability
Using a single ensemble member per model limits the assessment of the role of internal variability in projected changes.
Rating Explanation
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of CMIP6 projections, showing a concerning trend of ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient decline, while also noting the complex and variable effects on primary production. The robust methodology, comparison with CMIP5, and assessment of benthic impacts elevate it above an average study. The identified limitations in model resolution and representation of ecological processes prevent a 5 rating.
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Original Title:
Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections
File Name:
bg-17-3439-2020.pdf
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File Size:
11.26 MB
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July 14, 2025 at 06:52 AM
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