This paper introduces a new text-based measure of patent significance that predicts future citations and correlates with market value. Using this measure, the authors identify three major technological waves over two centuries and show that these waves are strong predictors of aggregate and sectoral productivity.

At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research.

This paper presents a novel approach to measuring technological innovation using textual analysis of patents, which offers advantages over traditional citation-based measures, particularly for analyzing long-run trends. The methodology is well-validated and the findings regarding technological waves and their link to productivity are significant. However, there are some limitations regarding the potential disconnect between the textual measure and true economic value, and data constraints affect the scope of some analyses.