Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?

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Paper Summary

Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Ship Pollution Cut, Warming Got Worse? A Devil's Bargain in Climate Change?

This study claims that reducing ship sulfur emissions unexpectedly accelerated global warming by reducing the cooling effect of aerosols, a "Faustian bargain." However, the analysis relies on correlating decreased ship emissions with a warming trend, assuming causation without sufficiently controlling for other factors. The paper's ship aerosol forcing estimation also contradicts several other studies that found much smaller effects.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

The first author is Director of the Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Program, which advocates for certain climate policies, and receives 100% of funding via public donations.

Identified Weaknesses

Over-reliance on a single explanatory factor

The study heavily relies on a single event (the reduction of ship emissions) to make broad claims about global warming acceleration. This approach ignores the complexity of climate change and makes the analysis vulnerable to other factors that weren't considered.

Correlation presented as causation

The study uses correlation between reduced ship emissions and warming to infer causation. However, correlation does not equal causation, and other factors could explain the observed warming trend.

Disagreement with published literature

The estimate of 0.5 W/m² ship aerosol forcing greatly exceeds estimations from multiple other studies. This casts doubt on the reliability of the paper's central claim.

Reliance on models and uncertain data

The study relies on complex modeling and interpretation of climate data, which are inherently uncertain.

Rating Explanation

The paper presents an interesting hypothesis about the effects of reducing ship emissions. However, the over-reliance on correlation as causation, disagreement with established aerosol forcing estimations, lack of consideration of other contributing factors, and funding via donations warrant a low rating due to methodological weaknesses and potential bias.

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