CO2 Gone in 5 Years? A Highly Simplified Model Says So

Overview

Paper Summary › Explain Like I'm Five › Conflicts of Interest › Identified Limitations › Rating Explanation › Good to know › Topic Hierarchy › File Information ›

Paper Summary

Paperzilla title

Using a simplified two-box model, this paper argues that the adjustment time of CO2 in the atmosphere is less than its residence time, implying that anthropogenic CO2 disappears within 5 years. This contradicts the established scientific consensus about the long-term impact of CO2 emissions. The model's oversimplification and unvalidated assumptions raise serious concerns about the validity of this conclusion.

Explain Like I'm Five

The time it takes for extra carbon dioxide to leave the atmosphere is less than 5 years, not centuries or longer as some climate scientists claim. The atmosphere and oceans quickly adjust to changes in CO2 levels.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Limitations

Oversimplified Model

The model used in the paper drastically oversimplifies the carbon cycle, reducing it to a two-box system (atmosphere and a generic "sink"). The real carbon cycle is vastly more complex, involving multiple reservoirs (oceans, land biosphere, etc.) with varying exchange rates and non-linear processes. This oversimplification makes the model's conclusions about residence and adjustment times highly questionable.

Unvalidated Assumptions

The author makes strong assumptions about the size and behavior of the "sink" in the model, without providing strong empirical justification. These assumptions drive many of the results, and their lack of validation makes the findings unreliable.

Dismissive of Established Science

The paper dismisses the established consensus about the long-term effects of anthropogenic CO2 based on this simplified model, without adequately addressing the evidence supporting the consensus. This dismissive approach weakens the paper's scientific credibility.

Rating Explanation

The paper's oversimplified model and unvalidated assumptions severely limit the reliability and generalizability of its findings. While raising interesting points about residence vs. adjustment time, the paper's conclusions are not supported by its methodology. Additionally, the dismissive treatment of existing research weakens its scientific contribution.

Good to know

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Topic Hierarchy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Field: Environmental Science

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

File Information

Original Title: Residence Time vs. Adjustment Time of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

Uploaded: August 22, 2025 at 07:16 PM

Privacy: Public