Coffee, Cashews, and Avocados: Where Will They Grow in 2050?

Overview

Paper Summary › Explain Like I'm Five › Conflicts of Interest › Identified Limitations › Rating Explanation › Good to know › Topic Hierarchy › File Information ›

Paper Summary

Paperzilla title

This study found that climate change will significantly impact the suitable growing areas for coffee, cashew, and avocado by 2050. Coffee is projected to be the most vulnerable, with substantial reductions in suitable areas, while both cashew and avocado might see global expansions. However, even cashew and avocado face localized reductions in optimal growing areas. The study highlights the importance of climate adaptation strategies, including varietal selection, improved management, and potential shifts in production regions.

Explain Like I'm Five

Scientists found that warm weather is changing where coffee, cashews, and avocados can grow. Coffee might have fewer good places, while cashews and avocados could grow in new spots, even if some old ones get too hot.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

This study was funded by the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture. While the authors state the funders helped select crops to model, they were otherwise not involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, or publication decisions. Syngenta's involvement could be considered a potential conflict of interest given its stake in agricultural products, though no direct influence on the research process was identified by the authors.

Identified Limitations

Coarse Resolution Datasets

The reliance on coarse resolution datasets (30 arc seconds) may not accurately capture the variability of local factors like microclimate, topography, and soil properties, especially on smaller scales. This can affect the accuracy of suitability assessments at regional and local levels.

Lack of Management Adaptations

The model does not consider management adaptations such as irrigation or liming, which are important practices in some avocado growing regions. This can lead to underestimation of suitability in areas where these practices are common.

Lack of Interaction Modeling

The absence of modeled interactions between different criteria (e.g., precipitation and soil texture) might affect the accuracy of suitability assessments as these factors can influence each other in reality.

Limited Climate Change Impact Parameters

The climate change impact modeling only focuses on three climate parameters, neglecting the potential impacts on dry season length, soil properties, pests, diseases, and extreme weather. These factors can significantly influence crop suitability under future climate scenarios.

Rating Explanation

This study presents a valuable global assessment of coffee, cashew, and avocado suitability, considering both climate and soil factors. It also provides insights into potential climate change impacts. While the methodology has some limitations (coarse resolution, lack of management adaptations, limited climate change parameters), the overall analysis is robust, comprehensive, and relevant. The transparent approach of multi-criteria evaluation is well-suited for identifying limiting factors and adds substantial value to the existing literature.

Good to know

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Topic Hierarchy

Domain: Life Sciences

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Subfield: Horticulture

File Information

Original Title: Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

Uploaded: July 14, 2025 at 11:28 AM

Privacy: Public