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Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change
Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
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Paper Summary
Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
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Land Use Change: Way More Than We Thought!
The study reveals that global land use change has affected nearly a third of the Earth's land surface (32%) from 1960 to 2019, significantly higher than earlier estimates. This extent of change, equivalent to twice the size of Germany annually, reveals geographically diverging trends, with forest gain in the Global North and deforestation alongside agricultural expansion in the Global South, patterns linked to global trade and other drivers.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Weaknesses
Data Uncertainties
The study acknowledges inherent uncertainties in individual datasets used for the reconstruction, such as misclassifications and over/underrepresentation of land use categories. While the use of multiple datasets aims to mitigate these issues, the uncertainties are still propagated to some degree, potentially affecting the accuracy of the final results.
Generalization of Land Use
The study relies on a generalized land cover classification scheme to harmonize the input datasets, potentially overlooking finer-scale land use changes and specific management practices.
Attribution of Drivers
While the study identifies temporal trends and patterns, the attribution of these changes to specific drivers like trade, climate change, or land degradation remains partly hypothetical and requires further investigation.
Simplified Pastureland Assessment
The study acknowledges the challenge of separating managed and unmanaged grasslands, especially in heterogeneous landscapes. The reliance on static ruminant density data from 2010 as a proxy for pasture usage over the entire study period (1960-2019) is a simplification that might not accurately reflect the dynamics of pastureland.
Rating Explanation
This is a strong study with valuable contributions to understanding global land use change. The unprecedented spatial resolution and temporal coverage, along with the use of multiple open data streams, are significant strengths. The methodology is robust and addresses some limitations of previous studies, particularly the underestimation of gross changes. The identified temporal phases and their potential links to socio-economic drivers are also insightful. However, several limitations regarding data uncertainties and the generalization of land use need to be acknowledged.
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File Information
Original Title:
Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
File Name:
s41467-021-22702-2.pdf
[download]
File Size:
5.17 MB
Uploaded:
July 14, 2025 at 10:40 AM
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