Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

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Paper Summary

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Atlantic Hurricane Clusters on the Rise, Pacific Clusters in Decline: It's a Climate Change Shuffle!

This study uses observations and climate model simulations to show that tropical cyclone clusters are increasing in the North Atlantic and decreasing in the western North Pacific, largely due to warming ocean temperatures and changes in large-scale atmospheric wave patterns. The study develops a probabilistic model that identifies dynamically connected tropical cyclone clusters and attributes the shift in cluster hotspots to a La Niña-like global warming pattern.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified.

Identified Weaknesses

Model uncertainty, especially for the western North Pacific

While climate models generally support the findings, there is some discrepancy in how well they predict decreasing clusters in the western North Pacific. This needs further investigation to clarify the reasons for the model bias.

Assumption of TC independence within clusters

Although the study uses advanced probabilistic modeling and high-resolution climate data, it assumes that tropical cyclones within a cluster are independent of each other. In reality, there can be complex dynamic interactions between these cyclones, which may influence the results.

Focus on atmospheric and oceanic factors only

The study focuses on changes in the ocean and atmosphere, but other factors could also play a role in TC cluster formation and evolution. For example, changes in land use or aerosol emissions could influence wind patterns and ocean temperatures, potentially affecting TC clusters.

Limited understanding of short-lived TC influence

The study acknowledges that short-lived TCs may introduce additional complexity in the relationship between TC lifespan and genesis time, and the analysis focuses on relatively long-lived TCs (lasting ≥2 days). Therefore, the influence of short-lived TCs remains unknown.

Rating Explanation

This is a strong study that uses advanced modeling techniques and high-resolution climate data to investigate a complex phenomenon. The authors carefully consider various factors that influence tropical cyclone clusters and provide valuable insights into how these clusters might change in the future. While there are some limitations to the study, the overall methodology is sound, and the findings are well-supported by the data.

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