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Physical SciencesEnvironmental ScienceGlobal and Planetary Change

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2017
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Overview
Paper Summary
Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
Methane's on the Rise! But Where's It All Coming From?
Global methane emissions for 2008-2017 were estimated at 576 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹ by atmospheric inversions, with about 60% attributed to anthropogenic sources. Bottom-up approaches estimated higher emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), with a significant discrepancy attributed to uncertain natural emissions, especially from inland waters. The study highlights the need for improved mapping and process-based modeling of inland water emissions, better assessment of methane sinks, and enhanced partitioning of sources using top-down models.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
The study involves a large consortium of scientists from various institutions, including some with potential ties to industries or sectors relevant to methane emissions (e.g., fossil fuels, agriculture). However, the paper explicitly states that the data are made available to promote understanding and mitigation efforts, and it encourages co-authorship for publications that rely heavily on the provided data.
Identified Weaknesses
High uncertainty in bottom-up estimates for natural sources other than wetlands
There are large uncertainties in the individual source estimates from the bottom-up approaches, and the emissions from freshwater systems have a large range and are not available at regional scale. As a result, the discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates, for natural emissions other than wetlands, is significant, and the uncertainty in the natural emission total remains high.
Uncertainty in global methane sinks
There is a significant discrepancy between top-down and bottom-up estimates of total chemical loss, and the uncertainty in the bottom-up estimates is large. The top-down models used in the study mostly rely on the same OH distribution from a single experiment (TRANSCOM), which may explain the relatively low range of estimates.
Inconsistent regional flux distributions from top-down models
While satellite-based inversions offer improved constraints over tropical continents compared to surface-based inversions, the regional flux distributions from different inversion systems are not consistent. This suggests that differences in atmospheric transport models among inversion systems have a more substantial impact than the observation types used, which poses challenges for regional flux attribution.
Uncertainty in atmospheric transport modeling
The study acknowledges that the representation of atmospheric transport is a major source of uncertainty in inverse modeling, and while newer model features like hybrid vertical coordinates offer potential improvements, further research and evaluation using independent data are needed to reduce these uncertainties.
Rating Explanation
This is a comprehensive and valuable synthesis of current knowledge on the global methane budget. The study combines multiple data sources and modeling approaches, acknowledges key uncertainties, and proposes concrete steps for future research. While some limitations exist in the consistency of regional flux estimates and the accuracy of sink estimations, the overall methodology is sound, the findings are significant, and the work provides a crucial foundation for methane mitigation strategies.
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File Information
Original Title:
The Global Methane Budget 2000-2017
File Name:
essd-12-1561-2020.pdf
[download]
File Size:
3.47 MB
Uploaded:
July 14, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Privacy:
🌐 Public
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