Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models
Overview
Paper Summary
Climate models project that a large portion of the Amazon rainforest could experience severe decline by the end of the 23rd century under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Key factors contributing to this decline are rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and land-use changes, specifically the conversion of forest to pasture or cropland. The decline is projected to be gradual, spanning over a century, eventually leading to a temporary shift from a carbon sink to a carbon source in the 22nd century before returning to near-neutral conditions by the 23rd century.
Explain Like I'm Five
Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, many climate models predict the Amazon rainforest will decline severely by the end of the 23rd century due to increasing temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and land-use change.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Limitations
Rating Explanation
This research uses state-of-the-art climate models to make important predictions about the future of the Amazon rainforest, which is crucial for the global climate and biodiversity. The study acknowledges the inherent limitations of these models and identifies areas for improvement. The methodology is strong, and the findings are significant.
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