Global urban land is projected to expand rapidly until the 2040s, primarily on current croplands, leading to a 1-4% decline in global crop production. This translates to an annual food supply loss equivalent to the needs of 122-1389 million people, highlighting the importance of managing urban development for food security.

The authors declare no competing interests. Funding was provided by public and academic institutions (NSFC, National Key R&D Program of China, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory). These affiliations do not present a direct conflict of interest, although the sources of funding could subtly influence research directions and interpretations.

This study offers valuable insights into global urban land expansion using high-resolution projections and multiple scenarios. The SSP framework and 1 km resolution data are strengths. However, limitations like static spatial drivers and the omission of climate change impacts warrant a rating of 4, indicating a strong study with minor weaknesses.