Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
Overview
Paper Summary
Global urban land is projected to expand rapidly until the 2040s, primarily on current croplands, leading to a 1-4% decline in global crop production. This translates to an annual food supply loss equivalent to the needs of 122-1389 million people, highlighting the importance of managing urban development for food security.
Explain Like I'm Five
Scientists found that cities are growing so big they are building on farms where our food grows. This could mean there won't be enough food for lots of people in the future.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no competing interests. Funding was provided by public and academic institutions (NSFC, National Key R&D Program of China, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory). These affiliations do not present a direct conflict of interest, although the sources of funding could subtly influence research directions and interpretations.
Identified Limitations
Rating Explanation
This study offers valuable insights into global urban land expansion using high-resolution projections and multiple scenarios. The SSP framework and 1 km resolution data are strengths. However, limitations like static spatial drivers and the omission of climate change impacts warrant a rating of 4, indicating a strong study with minor weaknesses.
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