Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Big Oil's Hot Mess: Study Links Carbon Majors to Half of Heatwave Intensity Increase

This study systematically links historical heatwaves to climate change and quantifies the contributions of individual carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers). It finds that all 213 heatwaves analyzed were made more intense and likely due to climate change, with carbon majors contributing to roughly half of the observed increase in heatwave intensity since the pre-industrial era.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Weaknesses

Limited Geographic Coverage of Heatwaves

While the study uses the largest available disaster database, the reporting of heatwaves is uneven, with very few reported in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, leading to a potential underestimation of impacts in these regions.

Incomplete Emissions Data

The database used represents only 75% of reported fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions. This likely underestimates the true contribution of carbon majors to heatwave intensification.

Aerosol Effects Not Fully Accounted For

The study does not fully account for the complex and localized effects of aerosols released by fossil fuel combustion, which can have a cooling effect, thus potentially underestimating the warming effect caused by the carbon majors.

Focus on Physical Hazards

The study primarily focuses on attributing physical hazards and does not extensively analyze their societal impacts (e.g., mortality, economic damages), which are crucial for fully understanding the consequences of carbon major emissions.

Rating Explanation

This study provides a valuable contribution to climate science and attribution by systematically linking heatwaves to individual carbon majors. The methodology is robust and builds upon established frameworks. While limitations regarding data coverage and aerosol effects exist, the study’s large sample size, consistent protocol, and novel approach to source attribution make it a strong piece of research. The findings have significant implications for climate policy and litigation.

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