Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Shifting Winds, Not Just Ozone: Explaining Recent Southern Hemisphere Temperature Changes

This study found that shifts in stratospheric wind patterns, specifically a slowdown in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, are a primary cause of the observed warming over the Southern Hemisphere and cooling over Antarctica from 2002-2022, masking the expected warming from ozone recovery. By accounting for these circulation changes, the authors reveal a warming trend over Antarctica consistent with ozone healing.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Weaknesses

Dependence on Models and Reanalysis Data

The study heavily relies on climate model simulations and reanalysis data, which are subject to their own uncertainties and limitations. This can affect the accuracy and robustness of the findings regarding the attribution of temperature and ozone changes.

Limited Time Period

The study focuses on the 2002-2022 period, which might not be fully representative of long-term trends. Decadal variability and other external forcings could influence the observed changes, and a longer time series might reveal different patterns.

Limited Explanation of BDC Slowdown

While the study identifies the slowdown of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as a key driver of the observed changes, it doesn't fully explore the underlying causes of this slowdown. Further research is needed to determine whether the circulation change is driven by natural variability or influenced by external factors like greenhouse gases or ozone recovery.

Rating Explanation

This is a strong study that provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between stratospheric circulation, ozone recovery, and climate change. The methodology used to isolate the impact of circulation is innovative, and the findings challenge previous assumptions about the causes of observed temperature and ozone changes. While the study has some limitations related to the use of models and the chosen time period, these do not detract from the overall significance of the research.

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