Effects of international sanctions on age-specific mortality: a cross-national panel data analysis

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Sanctions: A Silent War? Study Finds Economic Penalties Can Be as Deadly as Armed Conflict

This study uses cross-country panel data and several statistical techniques to examine the relationship between international sanctions and mortality. While correlation doesn't equal causation, the researchers find evidence suggesting that economic sanctions, particularly those imposed unilaterally by the US, are associated with a substantial increase in deaths, comparable to the mortality burden of armed conflict. However, no significant relationship was found between sanctions imposed concurrently with a UN sanctions regime and mortality.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

At the time most of the research for this study was conducted, two of the authors (SR and FR) were visiting researchers at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), which has a stated mission to promote democratic debate on economic and social policy. While the manuscript was finalized after their paid affiliation with CEPR ended, this prior relationship presents a potential conflict of interest, particularly given the politically charged nature of the study's topic. Additionally, one author (FR) is the owner of a for-profit consultancy and director of a non-profit organization related to Venezuelan issues, and is involved in litigation regarding Venezuela. While not directly related to this study's focus, these affiliations warrant transparency.

Identified Weaknesses

Causality vs. Correlation

The study uses observational data, which makes it difficult to definitively establish causality. While the authors employ several methods to address this, there's always a risk that unobserved factors could be influencing the results.

Limited Scope of Impact Assessment

The study primarily focuses on readily quantifiable impacts like mortality. It doesn't fully capture the broader suffering caused by sanctions, such as the erosion of social structures or long-term psychological trauma.

External Validity

Changes in how sanctions are designed and implemented over time may mean that these results aren't perfectly applicable to future situations.

Uncertainty Regarding UN Sanctions

Although the study finds no effect for sanctions imposed by the UN, the estimates are imprecise and don't rule out the possibility of harm from these actions.

Potential Research Bias

The researchers were affiliated with a politically oriented think tank at the time of the research, which may introduce bias into their analysis or interpretation of the data.

Rating Explanation

This study addresses an important and complex issue using a large dataset and sophisticated statistical techniques. However, the inherent limitations of using observational data to infer causality, along with the researchers' prior affiliations with a politically oriented think tank, necessitate a cautious interpretation of the results. This reduces the rating from a potential 4 to a 3.

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