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The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts

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Paper Summary

Paperzilla title
Waste Knot Gonna Stop Growing, But Dumps Might Be Dumped

Global municipal solid waste is projected to reach 3539 Mt by 2050, with organic waste declining and other types increasing. While the share of waste treated in dumps decreases, the overall trend in waste generation does not show signs of decoupling from economic growth, failing to meet UN SDG targets for waste reduction.

Explain Like I'm Five

Scientists found that the world will make much more trash in the future, especially plastic and other stuff. Even though we might have less food trash, we're not getting better at making less garbage overall, which is a problem for our planet.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Identified Limitations

Limited accounting for informal waste sectors
The study acknowledges limitations in accounting for informal waste sectors and open burning, which could impact GHG emission estimates and health impact projections.
Over-reliance on GDP as a predictor
Reliance on GDP as the primary predictor for waste generation and treatment overlooks other influential factors like policy and infrastructure, leading to high residual uncertainty.
Data gaps in waste trade and unreported waste
Lack of data on waste trade and unreported waste introduces uncertainties in global waste estimates.
Simplified nitrogen estimation
The assumption of a constant C/N ratio for estimating potentially mobile nitrogen might not accurately reflect real-world variations.
Limited account of tourism-related waste
The study doesn't fully account for tourism-related waste, potentially inflating estimates for countries with high tourism.

Rating Explanation

This study provides a comprehensive, global analysis of MSW trends, utilizing a novel compositional Bayesian regression approach to disaggregate waste by type and treatment. It offers valuable insights into future waste management and its environmental impacts, although some limitations regarding data availability and model assumptions exist.

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File Information

Original Title: The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts
Uploaded: July 14, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Privacy: Public