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Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases
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Paper Summary
Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
Science Grows, But Not Always at the Same Speed: From Newton's Apple to Today's Data Deluge
Modern science has experienced overall exponential growth with a doubling time of 17.3 years, but this growth is not uniform. Distinct periods of varying growth rates correlate with economic and political developments, such as industrialization and world wars, showcasing the interplay between science and society. Analysis of growth rates in the UK versus worldwide, and in life sciences versus physical and technical sciences, revealed relatively comparable trends.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Weaknesses
Reliance on publication counts
The reliance on publication counts as a proxy for scientific progress is problematic, as it doesn't account for variations in publication practices, quality, or the significance of findings.
Oversimplified growth model
The exponential growth model, while providing a good fit, doesn't explain the underlying mechanisms driving growth and assumes limitless resources.
Limited interpretation of growth
The interpretation of growth as "increase in numbers" doesn't necessarily translate to increased actionable knowledge or societal benefit.
Lack of in-depth analysis of growth rate differences
The analysis doesn't fully explore the differences in growth rates between segments, limiting insights into the factors driving these changes.
Rating Explanation
The study uses a robust methodology with multiple databases and imputation techniques, providing a comprehensive overview of scientific growth. However, the limitations regarding publication counts as a proxy and the simplified interpretation of growth prevent a perfect score.
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Topic Hierarchy
File Information
Original Title:
Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases
File Name:
s41599-021-00903-w.pdf
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File Size:
2.57 MB
Uploaded:
July 14, 2025 at 05:11 PM
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