Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases
Overview
Paper Summary
Modern science has experienced overall exponential growth with a doubling time of 17.3 years, but this growth is not uniform. Distinct periods of varying growth rates correlate with economic and political developments, such as industrialization and world wars, showcasing the interplay between science and society. Analysis of growth rates in the UK versus worldwide, and in life sciences versus physical and technical sciences, revealed relatively comparable trends.
Explain Like I'm Five
Scientists found that the number of science papers keeps growing bigger and bigger, like a plant. But sometimes it grows really fast, and sometimes it slows down, often because of big world events like wars or new inventions.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Limitations
Rating Explanation
The study uses a robust methodology with multiple databases and imputation techniques, providing a comprehensive overview of scientific growth. However, the limitations regarding publication counts as a proxy and the simplified interpretation of growth prevent a perfect score.
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