Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

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Paper Summary

Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Lakes are Stratifying Sooner and Staying That Way Longer: Climate Change is Messing with Lake Mixology

Lakes across the Northern Hemisphere are stratifying earlier and for longer periods, which may increase the risk of severe ecological changes. By 2070-2099 under high greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios, stratification will begin 22 days earlier and end 11 days later, a prolongation that could accelerate lake deoxygenation and release phosphorus from sediments.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Weaknesses

Limited representativeness of lake data

The study relies heavily on a lake-climate model ensemble and observational data from a limited number of lakes, which may not fully represent the diversity of lake ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere. The lack of data from many regions could potentially limit the generalizability of the findings.

Limited consideration of non-climatic factors

The study does not account for factors other than climate that could influence stratification phenology, such as water transparency, changes in salinity, water residence time, changes in nutrient loading, or differences in lake morphometry. Not accounting for these potentially significant influences makes it difficult to isolate the specific impact of climate change. The lack of data for these variables in the context of the large-scale study is understandable, however their importance is acknowledged in the Discussion, which shows that the authors are aware of the potential shortcoming.

Limited consideration of internal processes and proxy issues

The use of surface temperatures as a proxy for stratification phenology in some instances may not fully capture the complex dynamics of thermal stratification. This simplification could lead to some degree of inaccuracy in the estimated stratification dates, specifically for shallower lakes and those with internal mixing processes.

Rating Explanation

This is a well-conducted study with an interesting and important research question. The methodology is sound, the data analysis is rigorous, and the conclusions are supported by the evidence. The limitations of the study are openly acknowledged in the discussion. Overall, this research makes a significant contribution to the understanding of the impacts of climate change on lake ecosystems and highlights the potential for severe consequences in the future.

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