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Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering
Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios
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Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
China's Emissions Future: From Smog to (Maybe) Not Smog
This study projects China's emissions from 2015-2050 under various scenarios, finding potential reductions of 74-87% in major air pollutants by 2050 under the strictest scenario (SSP1-26-BHE) due to combined low-carbon policies and pollution controls. The study highlights the importance of co-governance of air quality and climate change, emphasizing the need for rapid implementation of ultra-low emission standards and recognizing the increasing role of low-carbon energy transitions in long-term emission reductions.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Weaknesses
Underestimation of mitigation efforts
The energy scenarios used are derived from the GCAM-China model, whose reference scenario doesn't explicitly consider mitigation actions, potentially underestimating future emission reductions due to renewable energy and electric vehicle initiatives.
Lack of detailed policy parameterization
Yearly detailed and parameterized actions for government policies are lacking, potentially leading to over- or underestimation of emission reductions from measures like phasing out small emission sources.
Limited comparability with CMIP6
The comparison with the CMIP6 dataset is limited by the use of multiple IAMs with varying assumptions and models, making it difficult to isolate the impact of scenario assumptions alone.
Base year emission uncertainty
Uncertainty in base year emission estimates due to incomplete data may propagate to future projections, affecting the accuracy of emission reduction rates and mitigation pathways.
Rating Explanation
This paper presents a strong methodology for projecting emissions by linking a global energy model with a regional emission inventory model and considering dynamic technology turnover. The integration of various scenarios and detailed policy analysis enhances the understanding of China's emission future. However, limitations related to energy scenario assumptions and policy parameterization warrant a rating of 4.
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Original Title:
Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios
File Name:
acp-20-5729-2020.pdf
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5.12 MB
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July 14, 2025 at 10:51 AM
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