Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios
Overview
Paper Summary
This study projects China's emissions from 2015-2050 under various scenarios, finding potential reductions of 74-87% in major air pollutants by 2050 under the strictest scenario (SSP1-26-BHE) due to combined low-carbon policies and pollution controls. The study highlights the importance of co-governance of air quality and climate change, emphasizing the need for rapid implementation of ultra-low emission standards and recognizing the increasing role of low-carbon energy transitions in long-term emission reductions.
Explain Like I'm Five
Scientists found that China can make its air much, much cleaner by 2050. This can happen if they use more clean energy and factories become less dirty, meaning less bad air for everyone.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Limitations
Rating Explanation
This paper presents a strong methodology for projecting emissions by linking a global energy model with a regional emission inventory model and considering dynamic technology turnover. The integration of various scenarios and detailed policy analysis enhances the understanding of China's emission future. However, limitations related to energy scenario assumptions and policy parameterization warrant a rating of 4.
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