Land availability and policy commitments limit global climate mitigation from forestation

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Overview

Paper Summary

Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Planting Trees Won't Save Us (Yet): Land & Policy Bottlenecks Limit Climate Impact

Global forestation efforts for climate change mitigation face significant constraints due to limited suitable land availability (389 million hectares after considering biodiversity and albedo effects) and mismatches between national policy commitments and actual available land. Under current conditions, forestation by 2050 could sequester only 39.9 petagrams of carbon, much lower than previous estimates, falling further to 12.5 petagrams if limited to existing land commitments. Achieving higher climate benefits from forestation requires expanding dedicated areas and strengthening national commitments.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

One author (S.C.C-P) serves on advisory boards related to forest restoration and carbon removal, which may represent a potential conflict of interest although not directly related to specific products or companies.

Identified Weaknesses

Model Uncertainty

The soil carbon change model is data-driven and its accuracy depends on the quality and representativeness of underlying data, which might be limited in certain regions (e.g., Amazon, Congo Basin). Projections beyond 30 years and deeper soil layers have higher uncertainty.

Hypothetical Scenario

The global forestation scenario assumes consistent effort over 10 years and doesn't fully capture real-world complexities like varying implementation timelines, local socioeconomic factors, and potential disturbances (e.g., wildfires, pests).

Oversimplification of Land Availability

While the study incorporates biodiversity and albedo, other factors like land tenure, social acceptance, and competing land uses can further restrict practically available land. The "supply" and "demand" estimations are static and may not fully reflect future changes in land use policies.

Limited Consideration of Albedo Change and CO2 Fertilization

The study acknowledges potential offsets from albedo changes and benefits from CO2 fertilization but does not fully integrate these complex interactions into the primary analysis. Quantifying these effects remains uncertain.

Rating Explanation

This study makes a valuable contribution by highlighting limitations in land availability and policy commitments, often overlooked in optimistic forestation assessments. The comprehensive global analysis and incorporation of soil carbon changes strengthen the findings. However, model uncertainties, the hypothetical scenario, and simplified representation of land availability warrant a rating of 4 rather than 5.

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