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Social Sciences › Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences
Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases
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Paper Summary
Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
Science Grows, But Not Always the Same: A Bibliometric Time-Travel Adventure!
Scientific output has grown at an overall rate of 4.1% annually since the 17th century, doubling every 17.3 years. This growth, however, is not uniform and varies considerably across historical periods, largely influenced by economic and political factors such as industrialization and world wars.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Weaknesses
Reliance on Publication Counts
The study acknowledges limitations regarding the use of publication counts as a sole measure of scientific growth, citing potential issues like variations in publication practices and quality across disciplines and journals.
Ambiguous Interpretation of Growth
The interpretation of growth as an increase in numbers lacks clarity on whether this translates to an increase in actionable knowledge. While the study demonstrates exponential growth and variations in growth rates across different periods, it doesn't delve into the qualitative aspects of this growth or its real-world implications.
Limited Scope of Databases
The study focuses on multi-disciplinary databases. While this allows for a broader overview, it misses the nuances and specific growth patterns within individual scientific disciplines. Future research utilizing mono-disciplinary databases is recommended to provide a more granular understanding of these processes.
Rating Explanation
The study employs robust statistical methods and utilizes data from multiple bibliographic databases to create a comprehensive model of scientific growth. Despite the acknowledged limitations, the findings provide valuable insights into the historical development of scientific output. The clear presentation, coupled with the call for future research into qualitative aspects, makes this a worthwhile contribution to the field.
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File Information
Original Title:
Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases
File Name:
s41599-021-00903-w.pdf
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File Size:
2.57 MB
Uploaded:
July 14, 2025 at 05:15 PM
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