Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases
Overview
Paper Summary
Scientific output has grown at an overall rate of 4.1% annually since the 17th century, doubling every 17.3 years. This growth, however, is not uniform and varies considerably across historical periods, largely influenced by economic and political factors such as industrialization and world wars.
Explain Like I'm Five
Scientists found that the number of science papers keeps growing, almost doubling every 17 years! But sometimes it grows faster or slower, especially when big things like wars or new inventions happen in the world.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Limitations
Rating Explanation
The study employs robust statistical methods and utilizes data from multiple bibliographic databases to create a comprehensive model of scientific growth. Despite the acknowledged limitations, the findings provide valuable insights into the historical development of scientific output. The clear presentation, coupled with the call for future research into qualitative aspects, makes this a worthwhile contribution to the field.
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