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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
Did the Flu Make Germans Vote Nazi? A Historical Dive into Pandemics and Politics
German cities with higher influenza mortality during the 1918-1920 pandemic spent less per capita in the following decade, particularly on services used by the young. Higher influenza mortality also correlated with a greater share of votes for right-wing extremist parties, especially the Nazis, in the 1932-1933 elections, potentially exacerbated by historical anti-semitism and radio propaganda.
Explain Like I'm Five
Scientists found that after a big sickness long ago, cities spent less money, especially on things for kids. This sickness also made more grown-ups vote for very angry groups, like the Nazis.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Limitations
Small Sample Size
The small sample size of cities used in the analysis (at most 75 cities per year) limits the generalizability of the findings and increases the risk of spurious correlations.
Data Granularity Mismatch
The data on influenza deaths and other variables are not always available at the same level of granularity. For example, influenza mortality is recorded at the regional level, while other data might be at the city level. This requires the author to make assumptions about the homogeneity of influenza mortality within regions, which might not always hold true.
Confounding Effects of World War I
The study period covers the years following World War I, a period of significant social and economic upheaval in Germany. Disentangling the effects of the influenza pandemic from the impacts of the war, such as population changes and economic disruption, is challenging.
Missing Data
The lack of data on city spending during the war and the hyperinflation period before 1925 makes it difficult to control for pre-existing differences between cities, which could influence both spending patterns and voting behavior.
Omitted Variable Bias
The paper acknowledges the possibility of omitted variable bias, where unobserved factors unrelated to the influenza pandemic might be driving the observed correlations. For instance, regional differences in cultural values or political preferences could influence both mortality rates and voting patterns.
Instrumental Variable Limitations
While the instrumental variable approach using railway density addresses some endogeneity concerns, the instrument might not be perfectly exogenous, and the small sample size can lead to instability in the estimates.
Rating Explanation
This study explores an interesting and relevant topic using historical data. While the findings are suggestive, the paper faces several limitations related to data availability, granularity, and the confounding effects of World War I, which makes it a 3 (average study with several limitations).
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File Information
Original Title:
Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933
Uploaded:
July 14, 2025 at 06:44 AM
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Public