Democratic Reforms in Dictatorships: Elite Divisions, Party Origins, and the Prospects of Political Liberalization

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Paper Summary

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Party Origins Matter More Than Elite Divisions for Dictatorship Reform

This paper examines how elite divisions within authoritarian regimes impact political liberalization, finding that the origins of the ruling party play a crucial moderating role. Elite divisions are more likely to lead to liberalization when the ruling party did *not* originate from national struggles (revolutions, etc.), like in Portugal's Carnation Revolution. However, when parties arise from such struggles, as with China's CCP, they can effectively use carrots and sticks to prevent elite divisions from sparking reform.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Weaknesses

Limited generalizability to all authoritarian regimes

The study's measure of elite divisions might not be equally effective in all authoritarian regimes, especially those with significant military influence outside the party, such as Myanmar. The authors acknowledge this limitation and suggest further research is needed.

Focus on major elite divisions

The study treats various forms of elite dissent (policy disagreements, rebellions, resignations, defections) as instances of elite divisions, limiting the analysis's ability to differentiate the impact of these distinct actions on regime change.

Lack of individual-level data

The analysis uses a broad definition of "party elites" and cannot distinguish between different types of elites within the ruling party (local leaders, ministers, military, etc.), limiting the study's ability to analyze the heterogeneous effects of specific elite dissent on regime change.

Rating Explanation

This is a strong comparative political science study that addresses a critical gap in democratization research by examining when elite divisions lead to reform. The use of a panel matching estimator and comprehensive robustness checks strengthens the analysis, although limitations regarding generalizability to all authoritarian regimes and the need for more fine-grained data on elite dissent are acknowledged.

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