Persuadable voters decided the 2022 midterm: Abortion rights and issues-based frameworks for studying election outcomes

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Abortion Access is Key: How Independents Voted in 2022

This study analyzed survey data and found that abortion became a more salient issue for voters in the 2022 midterm elections compared to 2020, significantly influencing Independent voters and contributing to Democratic support. While crime and immigration also mattered, abortion's increased importance, likely due to the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade, appears to be a key factor in the election outcome. The study is observational, limiting causal inference.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified. Although the study used survey data funded in part by the Haynes Foundation and Resnick Sustainability Institute, they had no role in the study's execution or interpretation.

Identified Weaknesses

Observational Study

The study relies on observational data, so it cannot definitively establish cause-and-effect relationships. It can only suggest a correlation between voters' opinions on abortion and their choice of candidate.

Survey Data Limitations

Self-reported survey data can be subject to biases, such as respondents not accurately remembering their voting decisions or being influenced by post-election media coverage.

Focus on Specific Issues

The study focused on a pre-selected set of issues. Other factors not measured by the survey could also have played a role in the election results.

Rating Explanation

This study provides valuable insights into the role of issue salience in voter behavior, particularly in the context of a significant policy shift. While the observational nature limits causal conclusions, the robust analysis of survey data, including comparison with a 2020 baseline, makes a strong case for the influence of the abortion issue on the 2022 midterm elections. The focus on persuadable voters and the clear identification of limitations warrant a rating of 4.

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