Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency

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Paper Summary

Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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Seas the Day! Flooding to Double Every 5 Years, So Get Your Flippers On!

The study finds that the odds of exceeding critical water level thresholds increase exponentially with sea-level rise, doubling approximately every 5 years. By 2100, the present-day 50-year extreme water level is projected to be exceeded almost daily during high tides for 90% of the U.S. coast, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation measures.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified.

Identified Weaknesses

Oversimplification of flood hazard assessment

The study acknowledges that site-specific flooding results from complex interactions of extreme water levels, topography, and the built environment. However, it uses extreme water levels as a proxy for flood hazard potential in its large-scale assessment, which might not accurately reflect actual flood risks at specific locations. This simplification can lead to overestimation or underestimation of flood risk in particular areas, hindering effective adaptation strategies.

Assumption of stationary extreme value distributions

The study assumes a stationary approach to extreme value theory, meaning that exceedance probability distributions remain constant over time, except for changes in mean due to sea-level rise. However, climate change can cause non-stationary changes like increased storminess, altering these distributions. Ignoring this can lead to inaccurate projections of future flood risk, especially towards the end of the 21st century when non-stationary effects become more pronounced.

Limited representation of coastal environments

The study uses a limited set of tide gauges, which are mostly located in sheltered areas like harbors and bays. This might not adequately represent the entire coastline, especially areas exposed to open ocean conditions with significant wave action. The exclusion of wave effects can substantially underestimate actual flood risks in exposed areas, potentially misleading coastal planning efforts.

Rating Explanation

This study provides valuable insights into the escalating coastal flood risk due to sea-level rise, using a novel approach to quantify continuous increases in extreme water level events. The exponential growth framework and the finding of a consistent 5-year doubling period are significant contributions. While the limitations regarding site-specific flood assessments and stationary assumptions are important, they do not undermine the core findings and the overall strong methodology justifies a rating of 4.

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