Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise

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Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

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The Continents Are Drying Out: Less Freshwater, More Sea Level Rise

Using satellite data, this study finds that the world's continents are experiencing unprecedented rates of drying since 2002, with drying areas expanding rapidly. This drying is largely attributed to groundwater depletion, worsened by climate change and extreme droughts. The continental contribution to sea level rise now surpasses that of individual ice sheets.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified.

Identified Weaknesses

Short observation period

While the researchers try to address this by focusing on trends that are robust, the short 22-year period of observation using GRACE/GRACE-FO data limits the certainty about long-term changes and the ability to fully distinguish them from natural climate fluctuations. Longer-term monitoring is needed to confidently establish persistent trends.

Reliance on models with inherent uncertainties

The study relies on models to separate the various components of total water storage (groundwater, surface water, soil moisture, snow water equivalent). Model outputs inherently have uncertainties due to simplifications and limitations in representing complex hydrological processes.

Attribution of observed changes

The study notes that there is a shift in the location and timing of drying/wetting trends, but it doesn't definitively attribute this shift to a specific cause like long-term climate oscillations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Further research is needed to disentangle the various driving forces.

Small changes in TWS in some areas

While the study finds significant increases in drying regions, the absolute values of TWS changes in some of these areas are small compared to the annual renewable freshwater supply. This might be misinterpreted.

Limited consideration of other climate patterns

The study doesn't fully explore the influence of other climate phenomena besides El Niño and La Niña on terrestrial water storage. Other climate patterns could potentially influence regional water storage, but their role is not extensively examined.

Rating Explanation

This study uses satellite data to reveal a concerning trend of continental drying and its implications for freshwater availability and sea-level rise. The methodology is sound, using established satellite measurements and models, and the findings are significant and alarming. However, the reliance on models and the relatively short observation period are limitations that warrant further investigation and long-term monitoring.

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