Doctor Drain: Will the US Run Out of Docs?

Overview

Paper Summary › Explain Like I'm Five › Conflicts of Interest › Identified Limitations › Rating Explanation › Good to know › Topic Hierarchy › File Information ›

Paper Summary

Paperzilla title

This study forecasts a significant physician shortage in the US by 2030, with 34 states projected to have a deficit. The South and West regions are expected to face the most severe shortages, while the Northeast will likely have a surplus, driven by factors like population growth, aging, and distribution of medical training programs.

Explain Like I'm Five

Scientists found that soon there won't be enough doctors in America, especially in some places. This is like when lots of people want ice cream but there aren't enough scooping, so some don't get any.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified

Identified Limitations

Assumption of no baseline shortage

The demand model assumes a static national ratio of physicians to the overall population as a baseline, potentially underestimating future shortages if the current ratio already reflects a deficiency.

Uniform national slope

Using a national slope for converting changes in healthcare expenditure to physician demand overlooks state-specific variations in physician workforce responsiveness to health spending.

Uniform physician propensity

The supply model assumes uniform likelihood of choosing a physician career across all states and over time, disregarding state-specific recruitment abilities and capacity of medical schools.

Outdated propensity value

Using an average propensity value over the past 10 years does not account for recent increases in medical school enrollment, potentially underestimating future supply.

Exclusion of foreign-trained physicians

Excluding future arrivals of foreign-born physicians underestimates potential future supply, as a significant portion of residents are foreign medical graduates.

Rating Explanation

The study presents a relevant analysis of physician supply and demand using a forecasting model. However, several limitations in the model assumptions, such as uniform national averages and static baselines, hinder the accuracy and generalizability of the predictions. Despite these limitations, the study raises important concerns about future physician shortages and provides a foundation for further research and policy development.

Good to know

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Topic Hierarchy

Domain: Health Sciences

Field: Health Professions

Subfield: Emergency Medical Services

File Information

Original Title: Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages

Uploaded: July 14, 2025 at 10:49 AM

Privacy: Public