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Health Sciences › Health Professions › Emergency Medical Services
Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages
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Paper Summary
Conflicts of Interest
Identified Weaknesses
Rating Explanation
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Paper Summary
Paperzilla title
Doctor Drain: Will the US Run Out of Docs?
This study forecasts a significant physician shortage in the US by 2030, with 34 states projected to have a deficit. The South and West regions are expected to face the most severe shortages, while the Northeast will likely have a surplus, driven by factors like population growth, aging, and distribution of medical training programs.
Possible Conflicts of Interest
None identified
Identified Weaknesses
Assumption of no baseline shortage
The demand model assumes a static national ratio of physicians to the overall population as a baseline, potentially underestimating future shortages if the current ratio already reflects a deficiency.
Uniform national slope
Using a national slope for converting changes in healthcare expenditure to physician demand overlooks state-specific variations in physician workforce responsiveness to health spending.
Uniform physician propensity
The supply model assumes uniform likelihood of choosing a physician career across all states and over time, disregarding state-specific recruitment abilities and capacity of medical schools.
Outdated propensity value
Using an average propensity value over the past 10 years does not account for recent increases in medical school enrollment, potentially underestimating future supply.
Exclusion of foreign-trained physicians
Excluding future arrivals of foreign-born physicians underestimates potential future supply, as a significant portion of residents are foreign medical graduates.
Rating Explanation
The study presents a relevant analysis of physician supply and demand using a forecasting model. However, several limitations in the model assumptions, such as uniform national averages and static baselines, hinder the accuracy and generalizability of the predictions. Despite these limitations, the study raises important concerns about future physician shortages and provides a foundation for further research and policy development.
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File Information
Original Title:
Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages
File Name:
s12960-020-0448-3.pdf
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File Size:
1.30 MB
Uploaded:
July 14, 2025 at 10:49 AM
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