Chinese control over African and global mining—past, present and future

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Paper Summary

Conflicts of Interest

Identified Weaknesses

Rating Explanation

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Paper Summary

Paperzilla title

China's Mining Grab: Not as Big as You Think (Yet)

Contrary to popular belief, Chinese companies control a smaller portion of global mine production than commonly perceived, around 3% in 2018, with about 7% of the value of total African mine production. While their influence has grown slowly over the past two decades, mostly through ownership stakes, the study suggests continued but potentially slower expansion in the future, influenced by factors like metal demand, Chinese policies, and host country responses.

Possible Conflicts of Interest

None identified.

Identified Weaknesses

Oversimplification of "Control"

The authors' measure of Chinese control over mining, focusing primarily on ownership stakes, might not fully capture the complexity of influence exerted through other means like management contracts, interlocking directorates, technology transfer, long-term contracts, and infrastructure development.

Data limitations and potential underestimation

The authors acknowledge potential underestimation of Chinese control due to data limitations, particularly for smaller, private companies and those operating in countries with less transparency. This makes it hard to definitively assess the true extent of Chinese influence.

Limited predictive power regarding future trends

While the study notes changes in Chinese companies' behavior over time (learning from mistakes, adapting to international standards), it doesn't offer a robust framework for predicting future trends. Factors like evolving Chinese policies, global metal demand, and host country responses are mentioned but not deeply analyzed in terms of their impact on future Chinese control.

Insufficient analysis of geopolitical risks

The authors acknowledge potential political disadvantages for Chinese companies due to geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China, but don't offer an in-depth analysis of how these tensions could impact future investments and control over mining operations in Africa or globally.

Rating Explanation

This paper provides a valuable contribution to understanding Chinese involvement in the global mining industry, but has several limitations related to data availability, the simplification of "control", limited predictive power, and insufficient analysis of certain key factors like geopolitical risks, resulting in a rating of 3.

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