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Democratic Reforms in Dictatorships: Elite Divisions, Party Origins, and the Prospects of Political Liberalization

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Resumen del artículo

Título de Paperzilla
Party Origins Matter More Than Elite Divisions for Dictatorship Reform

This paper examines how elite divisions within authoritarian regimes impact political liberalization, finding that the origins of the ruling party play a crucial moderating role. Elite divisions are more likely to lead to liberalization when the ruling party did *not* originate from national struggles (revolutions, etc.), like in Portugal's Carnation Revolution. However, when parties arise from such struggles, as with China's CCP, they can effectively use carrots and sticks to prevent elite divisions from sparking reform.

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Internal fighting among elites in dictatorships sometimes leads to more freedom, but this depends on how the ruling party came to power. If the party fought a revolution or similar struggle to gain control, they're less likely to give up power even with internal disagreements.

Posibles conflictos de intereses

None identified

Limitaciones identificadas

Limited generalizability to all authoritarian regimes
The study's measure of elite divisions might not be equally effective in all authoritarian regimes, especially those with significant military influence outside the party, such as Myanmar. The authors acknowledge this limitation and suggest further research is needed.
Focus on major elite divisions
The study treats various forms of elite dissent (policy disagreements, rebellions, resignations, defections) as instances of elite divisions, limiting the analysis's ability to differentiate the impact of these distinct actions on regime change.
Lack of individual-level data
The analysis uses a broad definition of "party elites" and cannot distinguish between different types of elites within the ruling party (local leaders, ministers, military, etc.), limiting the study's ability to analyze the heterogeneous effects of specific elite dissent on regime change.

Explicación de la calificación

This is a strong comparative political science study that addresses a critical gap in democratization research by examining when elite divisions lead to reform. The use of a panel matching estimator and comprehensive robustness checks strengthens the analysis, although limitations regarding generalizability to all authoritarian regimes and the need for more fine-grained data on elite dissent are acknowledged.

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Información del archivo

Título original: Democratic Reforms in Dictatorships: Elite Divisions, Party Origins, and the Prospects of Political Liberalization
Subido: 8 sept 2025, 15:29:09
Privacidad: Público